This white paper analyzes the economics of integrating post-combustion carbon capture with combined-cycle natural gas turbines compared to conventional baselines. The study evaluates three pathways: installing carbon capture at the commercial operation date, repowering the system after the initial 12-year Section 45Q credit period, and deferring installation.
By combining discounted cash flow analysis with market-responsive and baseload operating profiles, the study measures how capacity factors, auxiliary loads, and fuel consumption affect net revenue. It also examines revenue mechanisms such as power purchase agreements, green premiums for carbon-free power, and enhanced oil recovery. Finally, the paper assesses lifetime costs, emissions, credit monetization, and how build timing and operating modes influence total returns.
Authors: Patrick Daou and Carl Nolen – Sargent & Lundy, Jenny Speck – Vinson & Elkins